인형사님의 이글루

2월 1일자 브레진스키의 미국 상원 청문회 발언이 상당히 폭탄발언인데도 별로 보도가 안되는 것 같아서.

중요한 내용은 이라크의 실패를 이란 책임으로 몰아가거나, 아니면 미국내에서의 또 다른 테러 사건이 발생하면서 이란에 대한 개전명분을 확보하려는 것이 부시의 정책이라고 지적하는 것. 특히 직접 언급은 회피했지만 미국의 자작 테러극의 가능성을 암시했음.

또 하나 중요한 언급은 소위 이라크에서의 미국의 실패가 실패가 아니라 실패를 가장항 성공일 가능성. 즉 이라크전의 목표는 이라크의 안정적 점령이 아니라 일정한 위기상황을 발생시켜 그것이 중동에서의 미국의 군사적 개입을 확대해야할 필요와 명분을 제공하게 하는 것일지 모른다는 것

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http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june07/iraq_02-01.html



KWAME HOLMAN: The man who once served as President Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, testified next for a shorter time and with fewer questions because of Senate floor votes. He made his position clear at the outset.



ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, Former National Security Adviser to President Carter: I think it is obvious, therefore, that the American national interest calls for a significant change of direction.



KWAME HOLMAN: Brzezinski provided a scenario in which further deterioration in Iraq could lead to U.S. military action against Iran.



ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted, bloody involvement in Iraq -- and I emphasize what I'm about to say -- the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large.



The plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks, followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure, then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the United States blamed on Iran, culminating in a, quote, unquote, "defensive" U.S. military action against Iran, that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.



KWAME HOLMAN: Brzezinski said some administration officials have overstated the threat Iran poses.



ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: It is economically weak because it is an economy that hasn't been thriving, and it's one-dimensional, and it's relatively isolated. And I think our policy has unintentionally -- I hope unintentionally; maybe it was devilishly clever, but I think unintentionally -- helped Ahmadinejad consolidate himself in power and exercise a degree of influence, which actually his position doesn't justify.


Fear of expanding war theater

KWAME HOLMAN: And the former national security adviser warned of what might happen in Iraq without a significant change in direction.



ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: My horror scenario is not a repetition of Saigon, the helicopters on top of the embassy, and the flight out of the country. My horror scenario is that, by not having a plan -- and I understand my friend discussed yesterday perhaps the possibility of a secret plan that the administration has -- my fear is that the secret plan is that there is no secret plan.



SEN. JOE BIDEN: It's a good bet.



ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: My horror scenario is that we simply stay put, this will continue, and then the dynamic of the conflict will produce an escalating situation, in which Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks will be blamed on the Iranians. There'll be then some clashes, collisions, and the war expands.



Now, as far as dealing with the rebuilding of Iraq in a setting in which we commit ourselves to disengage, and the commitment to disengage set jointly becomes a trigger for an international conference, I think a great deal depends, not on us engaging in nation-building, but on the surfacing of a genuine Iraqi motivation.



I personally view with great skepticism all this talk about us creating an Iraqi national army, creating a nation, nation-building and so forth. The problem is we have smashed the state; we have given an enormous opportunity for narrow sectarian interests and passions to rise.



KWAME HOLMAN: Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden, who held this series of Iraq hearings, said the committee soon will turn its attention to Iran.